Futures Market Analysis – Page 8

Platinum prices stalled @ 1046.70 on January 16th, which was inside the middle of my proprietary Fib resistance zone. Is this the start of a bigger correction or just a temporary pullback before making new highs?

Let's digest the chart for clues:
Jan 16th high made on selling (black candle), which is bearish.
Jan 16th high made near the monthly R2 pivot @ 1041.00, which can be an overbought level.
Jan 16th high corresponds with 3 major swing highs from 2017 and 2018. All of them saw big sell-offs afterwards.
Price action has since fallen more than the previous 3 retracements off the Nov 12 swing low. This breaks the symmetry of this up move signaling a bigger correction could be coming.
Large traders have record net long positions as of Jan 21st, which is bearish.
The MACD formed a bearish crossover yesterday.

Conclusion:
The chart is starting to support a bigger correction.

The Platinum market is in an uptrend. Prices are making higher highs and higher lows on both the daily and weekly continuation charts. In addition, both charts shows prices above their respective 50 DMA and 50 WMA. Therefore, the current market condition is to buy dips.

However, price action is starting to show early signs of a correction based on the rally that started from the 11/12/19 swing low:

*dominant ABCD pattern with a medium deep retracement followed by a supporting abcd pattern with another medium deep retracement signals a weak uptrend (bearish)
*price action currently trading inside low end of my proprietary Fib resistance zone (bearish)
*COT report shows large traders are holding record long positions (bearish)
*seasonal bias shows prices typically fall mid-February to late March (bearish)

I will continue to monitor this market and provide updates when warranted.

Stay tuned!

Platinum (Update)

Platinum: Correction Coming?