Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) To Test All-Time Highs?

For anyone looking for some exposure to Bitcoin without buying Bitcoin itself can look to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).  For more information, please check out this link.

This market, from it’s 2-19-21 all-time high to its 6-22-21 most recent low, corrected 59%.  During this period, GBTC was in a downtrend from a daily time frame perspective.  However, since that 6-22-21 low it is showing signs of an upwards turnaround.  First, it formed a bullish double bottom pattern that was triggered on 7-26-21.  Second, it broke the bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the same day the double bottom pattern became active.  Third, it formed a bullish ABCD pattern today.  This pattern is bullish because it has a super shallow retracement (less than 38.20%) plus it has positive momentum because of the 6:1 skewing (6 bars down, 1 bar up).

Now that we have the signs of a potential trend change, where can we go from here, and where can we run into resistance?  Let’s look at the targets first.  The double bottom objective is ~ 38.52 and the ABCD pattern’s objective is a range from 41.78 to 43.16.  Now let’s look at the obstacles in the way of these upside targets. We have the 100 DMA ~ 37.49, the monthly R1 @ 38.82, and a change in polarity (old support becomes new resistance) between 37.88 and 40.67.  The double bottom target sits in the bottom of this potential resistance range.  But the ABCD target sits further above.  I think we could see the double bottom target reached, then see prices stall inside the resistance zone, and then fall back to retest the ABCD breakout level of 35.50 before moving back higher.  Once the change of polarity zone has been breached, then a move to the ABCD pattern’s objective seems likely. 

The final potential resistance to keep GBTC from all time highs will be two significant volume @ price clusters.  These clusters show the 2 heaviest traded volume profiles since the all-time high down to the recent lows.  The only larger one is the one that was just recently created below current price action.  These two upper resistance clusters are between 44.31-47.41 and 48.93-51.71.  If price action can clear these two zones, then new all-time highs should come soon afterwards.

GBTC