Silver Forming Possible H&S Top

There's a possible head and shoulders top forming in the September futures contract.  The left shoulder was formed on 5/20, the head was formed on 6/2, and a possible right shoulder was formed on 6/10.  Now all we need to confirm this pattern is a close below the neckline.  The height of the pattern is ~ 1.58.  Therefore, the target will be 1.58 less the neckline break.  If it breaks out today, then the target would be ~ 16.134.

How do we trade it? You can be aggressive and enter as the neckline gets broken.  The risk with this entry is that the pattern fails confirmation and bounces higher.  The more conservative approach is to wait for confirmation of the pattern.  Then, enter on a pullback to the neckline breakout.  The risk with this entry is that the market never pulls back.  Your stop can either be above the right shoulder @ 18.56.  Or you can place it above the downward sloping trend line.  Today's level would be ~ 18.429.

This patterns obstacles to its target include the 34 EMA wave, which often serves as support on trending markets.  If this area doesn't hold, then its 100 DMA and 50 DMA stand in the targets way.